Ward 16 Liberton/Gilmerton – SNP and Labour both going for the double

By Richard Wood

Liberton Gilmerton is situated in the south-east of the City of Edinburgh, bordering Midlothian Council, and has a population of 36,170 (as of 2020). It covers settlements including Alnwickhill, Burdiehouse, Craigour, Ferniehill, Fernieside, Gilmerton, Gracemount, The Inch, Kaimes, Liberton, Moredun, Mortonhall and Southhouse.

At the Scottish Parliament level, the ward sits within the constituencies of Edinburgh Southern (represented by Labour’s Daniel Johnson) and Edinburgh Southern (held by the SNP’s Ash Regan). This SNP/Labour split largely reflects the ward’s history at the local level.

Liberton Gilmerton election 2007

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In 2007, Labour stood candidates here and it paid off. The SNP’s Tom Buchanan topped the poll on first preferences (26%), taking his seat in the first stage of counting. He was joined by Labour’s Norma Hart (18.9%). The next candidate wasn’t elected until the ninth stage – Labour’s Ian Muray (with 15.8% of first preferences) who now serves as the MP for Edinburgh South. The Conservative candidate came close to getting elected here but lost out to the Lib Dems’ Connor Snowden – also elected on the ninth stage.

Liberton/Gilmerton by-election 2010

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Three years later a by-election took place (2010) triggered by the resignation of Ian Murray upon his election as an MP. Labour’s Bill Cook took 44% of first preferences and retained the seat.

Liberton Gilmerton election 2012

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Five years later, both Labour and the SNP stood candidates but only one party was successful in taking two seats.

Both Labour incumbents held their seats (Norma Austin-Hart and Bill Cook) as did the SNP’s Tom Buchanan. Meanwhile the Lib Dem support collapsed, benefiting the Conservatives’ Nick Cook who narrowly won his seat on the eighth stage of counting (ahead of the SNP’s other candidate).

Liberton Gilmerton by-election 2013

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Then in 2013, the SNP’s Tom Buchanan sadly died after less than a year after re-election. The seat was ultimately won by Labour’s Keith Robson -giving the party three councillors across the ward.

Liberton Gilmerton election 2017

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Then in 2017, the SNP’s bid to win two councillors here finally paid off – reflecting their gains across the city.

Labour’s Lezley Cameron topped the poll (24.81%) and was elected on the first round of counting at the same time as the Conservatives’ Stephanie Smith (23.24%). After that, both SNP candidates were elected on the sixth stage of counting – Derek Howie (17.49%) and Lesley Maciness (16.17%).

What could happen in 2022?

As in 2017, both the SNP and Labour hoping to win two seats here. The SNP have the advantage as they won two in 2017 and their national vote has held up at recent elections and in the polls, but Labour did come reasonably close to taking a seat in 2017 so they shouldn’t be discounted.

As for the Conservatives, they have a good chance of holding on.

The Lib Dems and Greens have little chance here but it’ll be worth seeing if they can build on the 5% of first preferences they each won in 2017.

Alba and the Scottish Family Party are also standing as is former MSP Colin Fox for the Scottish Socialists. It be a major shock if Fox won a seat here, and without detailed on the ground information about how the campaign is going its hard to say if there’s any cut through but the party has pulled off surprise wins before. The party’s wins at Holyrood in 2003 took a lot of people of people by surprise but their presence has been diminished – they didn’t stand at Holyrood in 2016 as they were part of a left-wing alliance. However, if history in this particular ward is anything to go by, Fox’s prospects are slim – he took 2.5% and 1.6% of first preferences here in 2012 and 2007 respectively.

Overall, I suspect there will be a repeat of 2017 but the possibility of Labour winning two seats here (either at the expense of the SNP or the Conservatives) shouldn’t be ruled out.

Ward 16 – Liberton/ Gilmerton candidates

Candidate	Party
Lezley Cameron	Labour
James Christie	Scottish Family Party
Philip Doggart	Conservatives
Colin Fox	Scottish Socialist Party
Lesley MacInnes	SNP
Marth Mattos Coelho	SNP
Ishrat Measom	Labour
Abu Meron	Alba
John Nichol	Greens
Madeleine Planche	Liberal Democrats