After the elections in May 2022, I intended to do a lot of data-crunching, analysis even some op-eds. I followed up with some of this on Twitter but life got in the way of further updates of the website.
At some point, I’d really like to sit down and do further analysis pieces for each party and Edinburgh politics going forward but now is not that time. At any rate, I’ve missed the moment for immediate analysis!
In the meantime, Edinburgh Elects will be on hiatus ahead of Scottish and UK General elections where I will cover them from an Edinburgh perspective.
Of course, if there are major developments in Edinburgh – such as a council by-election or a change in administration – I’ll aim to cover and analyse that. But for now, this project is on hold.
My other project, Upgrade Holyrood, has also taken a bit of a backseat due to life getting in the way but I aim to rejuvenate it at some point. I also have some other exciting projects that I’m working on the background.
— Edinburgh Elects 🏛 (@EdinburghElect) May 6, 2022
A NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: If you’re enjoying Edinburgh Elects, please consider donating. I’d love to keep doing this after the election, covering other elections in Edinburgh and ongoing council developments. I do this all voluntarily to share knowledge and analysis (and let’s be honest because it’s immense fun!) so any donations would be incredibly appreciated.
It is more than safe to say that this was a bad day for the Conservatives who lost half their seats across the city. The big winners here are the Lib Dems who doubled their seat share from 6 to 12.
And while there will be some disappointment that the SNP didn’t quite get 20 or more councillors, they are the largest party by far and held steady at 19 seats.
Meanwhile Labour will be happy with becoming the second largest party while the Greens will be pleased with their gain – and crucially coming ahead of the Conservatives.
As for next steps, there is only one two-party coalition that gets a majority – a repeat of the last SNP-Labour arrangement. But with a stronger Green party in the chamber, as well as an emboldened Lib Dems, the SNP will be considering other options.
Liberton Gilmerton is situated in the south-east of the City of Edinburgh, bordering Midlothian Council, and has a population of 36,170 (as of 2020). It covers settlements including Alnwickhill, Burdiehouse, Craigour, Ferniehill, Fernieside, Gilmerton, Gracemount, The Inch, Kaimes, Liberton, Moredun, Mortonhall and Southhouse.
At the Scottish Parliament level, the ward sits within the constituencies of Edinburgh Southern (represented by Labour’s Daniel Johnson) and Edinburgh Southern (held by the SNP’s Ash Regan). This SNP/Labour split largely reflects the ward’s history at the local level.
In 2007, Labour stood candidates here and it paid off. The SNP’s Tom Buchanan topped the poll on first preferences (26%), taking his seat in the first stage of counting. He was joined by Labour’s Norma Hart (18.9%). The next candidate wasn’t elected until the ninth stage – Labour’s Ian Muray (with 15.8% of first preferences) who now serves as the MP for Edinburgh South. The Conservative candidate came close to getting elected here but lost out to the Lib Dems’ Connor Snowden – also elected on the ninth stage.
Liberton/Gilmerton by-election 2010
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Three years later a by-election took place (2010) triggered by the resignation of Ian Murray upon his election as an MP. Labour’s Bill Cook took 44% of first preferences and retained the seat.
Five years later, both Labour and the SNP stood candidates but only one party was successful in taking two seats.
Both Labour incumbents held their seats (Norma Austin-Hart and Bill Cook) as did the SNP’s Tom Buchanan. Meanwhile the Lib Dem support collapsed, benefiting the Conservatives’ Nick Cook who narrowly won his seat on the eighth stage of counting (ahead of the SNP’s other candidate).
Liberton Gilmerton by-election 2013
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Then in 2013, the SNP’s Tom Buchanan sadly died after less than a year after re-election. The seat was ultimately won by Labour’s Keith Robson -giving the party three councillors across the ward.
Then in 2017, the SNP’s bid to win two councillors here finally paid off – reflecting their gains across the city.
Labour’s Lezley Cameron topped the poll (24.81%) and was elected on the first round of counting at the same time as the Conservatives’ Stephanie Smith (23.24%). After that, both SNP candidates were elected on the sixth stage of counting – Derek Howie (17.49%) and Lesley Maciness (16.17%).
What could happen in 2022?
As in 2017, both the SNP and Labour hoping to win two seats here. The SNP have the advantage as they won two in 2017 and their national vote has held up at recent elections and in the polls, but Labour did come reasonably close to taking a seat in 2017 so they shouldn’t be discounted.
As for the Conservatives, they have a good chance of holding on.
The Lib Dems and Greens have little chance here but it’ll be worth seeing if they can build on the 5% of first preferences they each won in 2017.
Alba and the Scottish Family Party are also standing as is former MSP Colin Fox for the Scottish Socialists. It be a major shock if Fox won a seat here, and without detailed on the ground information about how the campaign is going its hard to say if there’s any cut through but the party has pulled off surprise wins before. The party’s wins at Holyrood in 2003 took a lot of people of people by surprise but their presence has been diminished – they didn’t stand at Holyrood in 2016 as they were part of a left-wing alliance. However, if history in this particular ward is anything to go by, Fox’s prospects are slim – he took 2.5% and 1.6% of first preferences here in 2012 and 2007 respectively.
Overall, I suspect there will be a repeat of 2017 but the possibility of Labour winning two seats here (either at the expense of the SNP or the Conservatives) shouldn’t be ruled out.
Edinburgh’s Southside Newington ward sits in the south-east of the city. The ward sits partially in the Edinburgh Central constituency (represented by SNP minister Angus Robertson MSP) and partially in the Edinburgh Southern seat (held by Labour’s Daniel Johnson MSP).
The ward has a population of 36,920 as if 2020 and covers areas including Blackford, Cameron Toll, The Grange, Mayfield, Prestonfield and Sciennes. It also covers Blackford Hill.
No party has ever won more than one seat at each election here – with Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens consistently represented throughout the STV era. With just five candidates from five different parties standing in 2022, the former fact won’t change but will the latter?
In 2007, no candidate recieved more than 20% of first preference votes (although the two Lib Dems between them achieved an impressive 31%).
Labour’s Ian Perry achieved 18.6% of first preferences, not taking his seat until the sixth stage of counting.
All other candidates were subsequently elected on the eight stage of counting. The Conservatives’ Cameron Rose (still a Councillor today) met the quota having won 18.5% of first preferences. He was joined by the Lib Dems’ Gordon Mackenzie on 17% of first preference. The party were extremely close to taking a second seat but lost out to the Greens’ Steve Burgess who won 14.1%% of first preferences.
Five years later, the election in Southside/Newington represented much of what happened across the whole city that year. Having almost won two councillors in 2007, the Lib Dems lost out on taking any this time while the SNP gained their first. And as in 2007, no candidate won over 20% of first preferences. Here’s what happened.
Incumbent Green councillor Steve Burgess topped the poll, taking 19.97% of first preferences and winning his seat on flesh second stage of counting. He was joined by fellow incumbent Labour’s Ian Perry (19.78%) then new candidate, the SNP’s Jim Orr (18.34%) on the fourth and sixth round respectively.
While incumbent Lib Dem Gordon Mackenzie put up a good fight, he lost out on winning the last seat to incumbent Conservative councillor Cameron Rose (who took 16.72% of first preferences).
Then in 2017, four councillors won over 20% of first preferences electing them to represent the ward straight away. With five candidates standing, just one missed out.
Incumbent Conservative Cameron Rose took 26.93% of the vote, followed by new SNP candidate Alison Dickie (20.54%) – now an independent, Green incumbent Steve Burgess (20.35%) then Labour incumbent Ian Perry (20.12%). The Lib Dems missed out again.
With just five candidates competing for four seats – as in 2017 – only one will come away disappointed.
All four winners in 2017 were elected on the first round while the Lib Dems were eliminated straight away as a result. Could that change?
Based on recent elections here and the candidates this time, a repeat of 2017 looks likely, however, a Lib Dem comeback should not be dismissed. The party did win a seat in 2007 (with a hefty vote share) and they did take 13.97% of first preferences in 2012 and 12.05% in 2017. If the party can tap into the significant surplus of votes won by the Conservative candidate in 2017, while making sure other candidates don’t get elected on the first round, there is a route to taking a seat here. Southside/Newington is probably the Liberal Democrats’ best chance of a gain in this side of the city. If Conservative scandals at Westminster trickle down to local election decision making, it could certainly happen.
Overall, I’d say a repeat of 2017 is mostly likely but I wouldn’t bet against a surprise Lib Dem win in Southside/Newington. Either way, just one candidate will miss out on taking a seat.
A NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: If you’re enjoying Edinburgh Elects, please consider donating. I’d love to keep doing this after the election, covering other elections in Edinburgh and ongoing council developments. I do this all voluntarily to share knowledge and analysis (and let’s be honest because it’s immense fun!) so any donations would be incredibly appreciated.
Craigentinny/Duddingston is a four-member ward to the east of Edinburgh’s city centre.
The ward, which elected three councillors until 2017, includes the areas of Craigentinny, Lochend, Meadowbank, Northfield, Piershill, Restalrig and Willbrae, and has a population of 29,690 as of 2020. The ward also includes Arthur’s Seat.
At the Scottish Parliament level, it sits entirely within the Edinburgh Eastern constituency held by the SNP’s Ash Regan. Regan won 52.4% of votes in the constituency in 2021. And like all wards in Edinburgh, its residents are represented by a further seven regional MSPs.
In the first election of the STV era, the voters of Craigentinny/Duddingston elected three councillors from three different parties. Labour’s Ewan Aitken topped the poll with 29.2% of first preferences (taking the seat in the first stage of counting). He was joined on that round by the SNP’s Stefan Tymkewyc (29.2%).
Next up the Conservative candidate came third on first preferences, but ultimately lost out on transfers to the Liberal Democrats’ Gary Peacock (who started with 10% of the vote).
It’s worth noting here the interesting case of the SNP’s Stefan Tymkewycz who was elected here. Tymkewycz was elected as an MSP on the same day as his election to the City of Edinburgh council. Unlike most politicians who prioritise their election at a national level, Tymkewycz resigned as an MSP almost four months after his election to focus on being a councillor.
Furthermore, Labour stood a second candidate but if failed to pay off (they took 5% of the first preference votes).
Five years later, the SNP and Labour each stood two candidates but only one was successful in winning two councillors.
Incumbent SNP councillor Stefan Tymkewycz took his seat once again on the first stage of counting (with 25.8% of first preferences). Once again Labour also took a seat on the first stage of counting – Joan Griffiths took her seat with 25.7% of the vote.
The second SNP councillor came third in terms of first preferences with 11.1% while the Labour candidate took 10.5% and the Conservative took 10.2%. In the end though, the second Labour candidate, Alex Lunn edged it while the incumbent Lib Dem councillor came a distant sixth.
The result meant the ward elected two Labour and one SNP councillors, however, that didn’t last for long. Labour’s Alex Lunn left his party at the end of 2013 to join the SNP.
The most interesting aspect of Craigentinny/Duddingston in 2017 was that the SNP optimistically stood three candidates – hoping to improve on the one they won in 2012 and score an electoral hattrick, taking account of the ward increasing in magnitude from three to four councillors. Unfortunately for them, the gamble did not pay off. In fact it backfired almost entirely.
The Conservatives benefitted from their national uplift, with John McLellan taking 23.7% of first preferences and his seat in the first stage of counting. The SNP’s Ian Campbell joined him with 23.1%.
Labour’s incumbent Joan Griffiths took the next seat with 17.4% of first preferences, ending the SNP’s hopes of a triple win.
The next seat to be allocated went to the Greens’ Alex Staniforth (who took 11.7% of first preferences), ending the SNP’s backup hopes of even a double win. The SNP’s other candidates came fifth and sixth respectively (in terms of first preferences) including Alex Dunn who had switched to the party in 2013.
The most recent electoral contest in Craigentinny/Duddingston took place in 2020 following the resignation of SNP councillor Ian Campbell for health reasons.
The SNP held on decisively – taking 38.9% of first preferences and winning the seat well ahead of other candidates after transfers. Ethan Young was elected accordingly, giving the party a strong starting point for 2022.
What could happen in Craigentinny/Duddingston at this year’s election?
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This time the SNP are standing two candidates, hoping to capitalise on their support across the ward without the risk of overextending themselves like they did in 2017 by standing three.
Based on past results and current polling, the SNP will almost certainly take one seat and have a good chance of winning that second one. Their good result in the 2020 by-election certainly gives them the advantage here.
The Conservatives did extremely well in 2017, especially compared to their previous results, so if they put the work in and hold on to most of those voters they won in 2017, they have a really good chance of retaining their seat. Their support largely held up in the 2020 by-election here, which should give them further confidence that they’ll hold on.
Labour also have a fairly good chance of holding on while the Greens will have only won a seat for the first time here in 2017. That said the latter is standing the same candidate again and have had time to further establish themselves in the area.
The only other candidate is the Liberal Democrat, making this a contest of established parties unlike other wards where the likes of Alba and the Scottish Family Party are fielding candidates. The Lib Dems won a seat here in 2007, largely benefiting from transfers to take their seat in the eleventh stage of counting. A route to improving on the 4.2% they won in 2017 could be from disaffected Conservatives (in light of recent scandals at the UK level) but the chances of them coming close to winning a seat here look unlikely.
Overall, the SNP and Conservatives should probably take a seat each here, with the remaining two going to any combination of a second SNP seat, Labour and the Greens. This is one of the SNP’s best chances of a gain. It’s not certain but if it happens the questions remains: who would lose out, Labour or the Greens?
A NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: If you’re enjoying Edinburgh Elects, please consider donating. I’d love to keep doing this after the election, covering other elections in Edinburgh and ongoing council developments. I do this all voluntarily to share knowledge and analysis (and let’s be honest because it’s immense fun!) so any donations would be incredibly appreciated. You can donate via Liberapay here.
Both the SNP’s Adam McVey and the Greens’ Chas Booth are standing again but Labour’s Gordon Munro isn’t, with Katrina Faccenda standing for Labour. What could happen in 2022?
The three-member ward of Leith sits at the northern-most point of Edinburgh’s capital. This ward covers the historic area of Leith, including the port of Leith, Seafield, Hamilton Wynd, South Leith, and Woodville Terrace. It has a population of 24,630 as of 2020.
Leith sits entirely within the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Northern and Leith, which is currently held by SNP minister and Ben Macpherson MSP. Macpherson has held the seat since 2016 and before that it was held by Labour.
Here’s what’s come before and a preview of what could happen this May.
Leith election 2007
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In the first election of the STV era, the SNP’s Rob Munn topped the poll, winning 27.4% of first preferences and taking his seat on the first round of counting. He was then joined by the Lib Dems’ Marjorie Thomas (21.8%) and Labour’s Gordon Munro (21.8%).
The Green candidate came fourth, losing out on a seat by a decent gap while Labour’s second candidate came fifth. The elimination of the party’s second candidate took Munro well over the finish line thanks to transfers.
Five years later, the SNP were feeling confident in Edinburgh (and the rest of Scotland after a historic win at Holyrood in 2011) while the Liberal Democrats were suffering from their UK-level coalition with the Conservatives and reeling from their 2011 Scottish Parliament losses, which had left them without Holyrood representation in the capital.
Feeling opportunistic in this ward, the SNP stood two candidates. Had this been a four-member ward it could have paid of but three-member wards are much harder to double up due to higher quotas, which the SNP found out to their cost in Leith.
Incumbent Labour councillor Gordon Munro recieved a big boost in support this time, taking his seat on the first stage of counting (with 32.1% of first preferences). The Greens’ Chas Booth, who lost out on a seat in 2007 took the next seat with 18.9% of first preferences.
SNP candidates Adam McVey (now council leader) and incumbent Rob Munn took 17.6% and 14.8% of first preferences respectively but only one was elected. In the end, McVey took the seat on the seventh stage of the count, however, this wasn’t the end of Rob Munn’s political career. In 2019, he won a seat in the neighbouring Leith Walk by-election and hopes to retain his seat in 2022.
In retrospect it seems baffling that the SNP stood two candidates here, which ultimately lost them an experienced councillor. They must have had data suggesting their gamble could pay off, but they certainly haven’t made that mistake since.
At the next election, just five candidates stood across Leith – one from each of Scotland’s five main parties. The SNP’s incumbent Adam McVey stood again and easily topped the poll, taking 36.16% of first preferences. He was soon joined by incumbent Green Chas Booth with 22.36% of first preferences.
The Labour and Conservative candidates came third and fourth respectively in terms of first preference votes. While the Conservatives did significantly better than in previous years (reflecting a pattern across Edinburgh and Scotland), their candidate ultimately lost out to Labour incumbent Gordon Munro.
At the end of the day, in 2017 Leith ended up with the same councillors as it had in 2012.
Unlike in 2017, voters have more choice this time – with the addition of Alba and the Scottish Family Party each running a candidate, as well as a bid from an independent.
Both Adam McVey and Chas Booth are standing again but Labour’s Gordon Munro isn’t, with Katrina Faccenda standing for Labour.
It’s almost certain that the SNP and the Greens will hold here. The parties are doing well in the polls, have a strong history in the ward and both candidates benefit from an incumbency advantage. For either to lose would be a major shock, especially to the SNP.
It’s also highly likely that Labour will hold their seat in Leith. While Gordon Munro isn’t standing again, it’s hard to imagine the party losing out to the Conservatives who were almost snapping at their heels in 2017. The Conservatives did much better than expected in 2017, and while a strong, targeted campaign could get them a seat, the party isn’t the most transfer friendly under STV, meaning that they would need a significant number of first preference votes to get them a win in this left-leaning part of the city.
The other parties have little to no chance here, but it’ll be interesting to see how transfers play out, especially for Alba in relation to the SNP and Green candidates. One-time winners the Lib Dems could increase their first preference vote share but a seat in 2022 looks far out of reach.
Overall, it looks like Leith could vote for the same three parties as at the last two elections although the order candidates get elected is up in the air. Anything other than an SNP/Green/Labour outcome would be a major shock to the system, however – while it’s a stretch – with the right campaign a Conservative win here isn’t beyond the realms of possibility.
Situated in the north of the city, between the wards of the City Centre and Leith, Leith Walk has been a four-member ward since its creation in 2007. Notably, current SNP MP Deidre Brock and current Green MSP Maggie Chapman started their political careers here while Green minister Lorna Slater and Conservative MSP Miles Briggs attempted to do so as well.
The ward has a population of 35,230 as of 2020 and covers the areas off of Leith Walk including Bonnington, Broughton and Pilrig.
At the Holyrood level, Leith Walk sits wholly in the Edinburgh Northern and Leith constituency (currently held by SNP minister Ben Macpherson), and is of course also represented by a further seven Lothian list MSPs.
Leith Walk 2007 election
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At the first election of the STV era of local governance, four different parties emerged with seats, with one failing to win a second.
The SNP’s Deidre Brock (now MP for Edinburgh North and Leith) came out on top, winning 22.3% of first preference votes.
The next seat wasn’t allocated until the fifth stage of counting when Liberal Democrat Louise Lang took a seat (having won 19% of first preferences).
The Greens’ Maggie Chapman (now an MSP for North East Scotland) took her seat on the eight round (winning 15.3% of first preferences) and was followed by Labour’s Angela Blacklock (16.9%). Her party colleague came fifth, missing out on a seat.
Five years later, Deidre Brock came out on top once again (winning 22.1% and taking her seat in the first stage of counting Her and fellow incumbents, Labour’s Angela Black and the Green’s Maggie Chapman also both held their seats on the first stage of counting (with 21.3% and 20.3% of first preferences respectively).
The Lib Dems didn’t fare as well this time, in line with their falling national poll numbers, taking just 5.1% of the vote (and only three seats across the city). Instead, Labour’s second candidate Nick Gardner took the fourth seat (11.9% of first preferences) while the Conservatives’ Miles Briggs (now a Lothians MSP) came a distant fifth.
It’s worth highlighting that the SNP tried a second candidate here but they won just 6.4%, coming in sixth.
At the 2015 UK General Election, the SNP’s Deidre Brock won her seat in the House of Commons, triggering a Leith Walk by-election. At the same, the Green’s Maggie Chapman resigned (to focus on her failed MSP bid in 2016), resulting in a by-election for two seats.
STV by-elections are not the best way to replace resigning councillors as there is an inbuilt advantage to the dominant party in a ward, resulting in an unfairness when it comes to having a single-member election in a multi-member ward. Having two seats up for grabs weakens this somewhat.
On 10 September 2015, the SNP’s John Lewis Ritchie took his seat on the first stage of counting (with 36.2% of first preferences). What followed was a reasonably tight count between the Labour and the Greens, but in the end the former party’s Marion Donaldson took the seat (25.7% of first preferences).
Eighteen months later, Leith Walk went to the polls alongside the rest of Edinburgh.
The Greens’ Sue Rae, who narrowly lost the 2015 by-election, came first this time – taking 19.69% of the vote and securing her seat on the fourth round.
Labour’s Marion Donaldson came fourth on first preferences but- took the next seat (15.04%) but was joined by two SNP candidates (by-election winner Lewis Ritchie, 17.84% and newcomer Amy McNeese-Mechan, 16.62%).
This resulted in one Green, one Labour and two SNP seats – a change from 2012 when Labour had won two seats and the SNP one, reflecting the latter’s success in 2017.
A total of five councillors originally elected to serve under the SNP banner have resigned since the 2017 election.
Leith Walk councillor Lewis Ritchie was the first to resign SNP group to become an independent councillor in February 2018.
Two months later, Gavin Barrie (Inverleith) also resigned from the party to become an independent. And just three months after that Claire Bridgman (Drum Brae/Gyle) did the same. The trio went on to form the Edinburgh Party of Independent Councillors group on the council.
Leith Walk 2019 by-election
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A by-election was triggered in early 2019 by the resignation of Labour incumbent Marion Donaldson – who herself had won her seat in the 2015 by-election.
The SNP’s Rob Munn took the seat ahead of the Greens’ Lorna Slater (now a junior minister in the SNP – Green coalition arrangement. The count lasted eleven stages, following Munn winning 35.7% of first preferences.
On Thursday 5 May 2022, voters in Leith Walk will have a choice of 12 candidates, the second most competitive ward across the city (just behind the City Centre ward).
As in 2017, the SNP are standing two candidates, while the Greens, Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are standing one each. On top of that, Alba, the Scottish Family Party, Socialist Labour (not to be confused with Labour) the Communist Party of Britain, the Women’s Equality Party and the Freedom Alliance are each standing one candidate.
The SNP, Labour and the Greens will almost certainly take a seat each here as in the last three elections. It’s that last seat which could be in play.
In 2017, the Conservatives were not too far behind the centre-left parties but lost out due to significant transfers to the Labour candidate and better starting points for the SNP candidates. Across the board, the Conservative haven’t made much gains in Scotland since the last election, largely remaining where they were a few years ago. I’d be very surprised if they took a seat here although with targeted resources and a real focus on this ward would make it certainly shouldn’t be ruled out entirety.
And unlike in 2017, Labour are not standing a second candidate this time so there’s no chance of them picking up a second.
The Lib Dems, despite their solid win in 2007 have very little chance of a comeback here and minor parties aren’t going to break through here this time either.
That leaves the SNP. They certainly have the advantage over the Conservatives and other parties when it comes to taking another seat. Furthermore, they have an incumbency for both their candidates this time.
The Leith Walk 2022 election looks set to therefore be a repeat of 2017 although the order successful candidates get elected in is certainly be up in the air.
Candidates in Leith Walk 2022
The full list of candidates standing in Leith Walk is below. Incumbents are listed in bold.
The Edinburgh SNP have today (Saturday 16 April) released their manifesto for the 2022 election.
The publication follows numerous trails over recent weeks where they have teased proposals such as the introduction of a tourist tax and two new tram lines for Scotland’s capital city.
The party won the most seats at the 2017 election and have been running the council with the Labour Party since then. Before that (from 2011) they were the junior partner in the Labour-SNP coalition and before that they were in coalition with the local Liberal Democrats (from 2007).
This time they are standing 25 candidates across the city, hoping to build on the 19 they won at the last election.
The party’s manifesto is centred around the idea of Edinburgh as a European capital for the future.
SNP Group Leader and Council Leader Adam McVey wrote in the foreward, saying:
For the past five years, your SNP councillors have been working hard with your SNP-led Scottish Government to take our city forward. 2017-2022 is the first time that Edinburgh has been led by the SNP. While we’ve rolled up our sleeves and achieved so much, there is still much to do to make sure that Edinburgh’s success as a vibrant European capital city is shared by everyone.
This is the strongest team we have ever put forward for election and the first time we are standing a field of candidates who are properly gender balanced and reflect the diverse ethnicities and citizenships of our residents. We have built up the experience our city needs and pushed new ideas forward.
Adam McVey (2022)
The launch of the manifesto means that all of Scotland’s five main parties have published their policy platforms. The rest can be downloaded here.
Edinburgh’s City Centre ward is one of the city’s four-member contests up for election this year. Originally a three-member ward, it has a population of 35,310 (as of 2020) and covers central areas including Calton Hill, Coats, Canongate, Haymarket, the New Town, the Old Town and the West End. If you’ve ever been to Edinburgh, chances are you will have likely visited this ward.
City Centre has been represented by all five of Scotland’s main political parties in the STV era and is currently represented by councillors from four different parties.
The ward sits almost entirely in the Edinburgh Central constituency at the Scottish Parliament (currently represented by the SNP’s Angus Robertson) although a slither of the ward sits in Edinburgh Eastern (held by the SNP’s Ash Regan). Like all wards in Edinburgh, it is further represented by seven regional MSPs in Lothian.
City Centre 2007 election
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Since the ward’s creation in 2007, the SNP and Conservatives have consistently won the highest number of first preferences. This time the SNP candidate won the most votes – but only just (a mere 16 more than the Conservative candidate).
In 2007, SNP’s David Beckett won 20.3% of first preferences ahead of the Conservatives’ Joanna Mowat on 20.1% of first preferences. However, the Lib Dems’ candidate Charles Dundas took the first seat due to transfers (winning 19.7% of first preferences). Dundas took his seat on the fifth stage and was soon followed by Beckett and Mowat on the sixth and eighth stages respectively.
The Labour and Green candidates weren’t too far behind the victors but lost out on this occasion.
City Centre 2011 by-election
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In 2011 SNP councillor David Beckett resigned (to take up a place at Harvard no less!), triggering a by-election in the City Centre ward.
The vote took place three months after the SNP won an overall majority of seats at Holyrood, however, an SNP loss would have meant the council Lib Dem-SNP administration losing their majority. For that reason it was seen as a critical by-election at the time.
On the day, the Conservatives took the highest number of first preference votes followed by the SNP with just 40 fewer. What followed was a tight count until the fifth stage where the SNP’s Alastair Rankin clinched the seat, significantly benefitting from Labour transfers. Rankin’s victory saved the embarrassment of the administration losing its majority nine months out from the next election.
By 2012, the Scottish political landscape had changed dramatically. Compared to 2007, the SNP had a majority at Holyrood and the Conservatives and Lib Dems were governing together at Westminster.
At this election across Edinburgh, the Lib Dems certainly felt the backlash from their UK-level cooperation with David Cameron. Here’s what happened in City Centre.
This time incumbent Conservative councillor Jo Mowat came out on top, taking her seat in the first stage of counting with 27.69% of first preferences. She was swiftly joined by by-election winner Alastair Rankin (SNP) on the second stage, after he took almost 25% of the vote.
The next seat wasn’t allocated until the sixth round when Labour candidate Karen Doran gained her seat after winning 21.33% of the vote.
The Greens came fourth while the Lib Dems came a distant fifth, losing their seat in City Centre.
Five years later, a fourth seat was added to the City Centre ward, making it a somewhat more interesting contest to observe.
In part due to the lower quota from the additional seat, three candidates won their seats on the first round of counting.
Incumbent Conservative Jo Mowat increased her vote share for a third time, taking an impressive 32.68% of the vote, a win that reflected increased Conservative support across the city that election.
The SNP incumbent Alastair Rankin took his seat with 25.07% of the vote while new Green candidate Claire Miller took hers with 20.52% – a good win after a series of near misses.
The fourth seat wasn’t allocated until the sixth round when incumbent Labour councillor Karen Doran retained her seat.
As in 2017 there are four council seats up for grabs. Like last time the Conservatives, Greens, Labour and Lib Dems are standing one candidate each but the SNP have put up a second (for the first time in the ward’s history), creating an interesting starting point for the campaign here.
In addition to the five main parties there are no fewer than six independent candidates standing, as well as one from Alba. In total there are 13 candidates in the contest. Voters are certainly spoilt for choice here.
One thing is clear. The SNP and the Conservatives are almost certain to hold their seats, but can the SNP gamble of standing for a second seat pay off?
The fact they are standing a second candidate must be in part have been determined by the SNP’s jump in support in the Edinburgh Central constituency in 2021, where they gained 10.4 percentage points and took the seat from the Conservatives. I imagine data gathered by the party since then suggests that boost is holding across the ward, shaping their strategy of standing two candidates. That all said, while there is a good path to winning a second seat here it will be an uphill battle, likely involving winning over Green voters.
Meanwhile, Conservative incumbent Jo Mowat has represented the area since 2007 and is standing again so there is also a strong incumbency advantage for the party here.
But what about the others?
The Greens have a strong history here, despite only taking a seat in 2017. What’s more their current councillor is standing again, possibly giving them an incumbency advantage. Overall, they have a good shot at retaining their seat, helped by their solid performance in the Edinburgh Central constituency in 2017 but are at risk from that second SNP candidate this time around.
As for Labour, the party just held on to their seat in 2017. Like the Greens they have a good chance at holding on but are certainly not as secure as the SNP and the Conservatives.
As for the Lib Dems, the party have been actively campaigning here and while their chances look impossible at a glance, there is arguably a path to victory through transfers from successful and eliminated candidates. After all in 2017, they were fewer than 200 votes behind Labour in the fifth stage of counting. With the SNP standing a second candidate it seems surprising that the Conservatives didn’t put up a second here as well – with a strategy of squeezing the Labour and Lib Dem vote. However, without that second candidate, there’s a path to success for the Lib Dems if they can eat into that surplus Conservative vote, which they did in 2017 (taking an extra 475 votes from Mowat in the second stage of counting, the vast majority of her backers’ second preferences). That said, with two SNP candidates, as well as strong chances from the Greens and Labour, competition will be fierce and any path to a Liberal victory will be narrow.
There are of course six independents standing here but to be frank the chances of any of them taking a seat are extremely slim. Never say never but Scottish local politics, at least in urban Scotland – and especially in Edinburgh – is very much a party-based game. The last independent to win a seat in the city was during the First Past the Post era, and way back in 1980 – that’s a staggering 42 years ago (and 14 years before I was born!) Compare that to councils in Orkney and Shetland where independent candidates dominate the political scene.
Overall, the SNP and Conservatives are all but guaranteed to come away with one seat each. It’s those other seats that are more difficult to determine and will likely fall to any combination of a second SNP seat, the Greens, Labour and perhaps even the Lib Dems.
Two SNP wins here would be a massive success for the party which has been governing the city (with different partners) for the last decade.
The results in Edinburgh’s City Centre ward will therefore play a crucial role in shaping the post-election narrative.
The Edinburgh Greens have launched their 2022 election manifesto, entitled “Think Global Act Local: A Green Edinburgh for Everyone“.
The party won eight councillors at the last election in 2017 and are hoping to improve on that total this time around.
The manifesto outlines what the party has achieved in local government so far and their pledges for 2022 – 2027.
The detailed 43-page document has 12 key priorities for the City of Edinburgh. Notably they want to see Edinburgh become a net-zero carbon city by 2022.
Leading on the Climate Emergency
Putting communities’ needs first
Planning our common future
Connecting our city
Securing warm, safe homes for all
Recovering our economy and learning from the pandemic
Edinburgh Elects 